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discsoftron| After the manual interest payments were stopped, public deposits were relocated, and funds continued to flood into wealth management products. Can bank financial management withstand this wave of "wealth creation"?

editor editor 发表于2024-05-15 19:41:55 浏览4 评论0

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Financial Associated Press, May 15 (Reporter Liang Kezhi) in April, the people's Bank of China directed the interest rate self-regulation mechanism to issue an initiative, explicitly requiring banks not to promise or pay customers in any form to break the authorized upper limit of deposit interest rates.DiscsoftronAfter the payment of interest, there has been a significant transfer of public deposits in financial institutions.

Data show that RMB deposits decreased by 3% in the month of April.Discsoftron.92 trillion yuan. Of this total, household deposits have shrunk by 1.85 trillion yuan and corporate deposits by 1.87 trillion yuan.

On May 14, the head of the Guangzhou Branch of a joint stock bank told the Financial Union that the recent suspension of manual interest payments and smart deposits, respectively aimed at high-cost deposits for enterprises and individuals, had a greater impact on network deposits. 1/4 of public deposits may have been affected last month. At present, it is mainly targeted to increase the expansion of deposits for special groups such as the distribution business and the elderly.

At the same time, China International Capital Corporation data show that the scale of financial management increased by more than 2 trillion yuan in the first four months of this year, reaching a new high in the same period in recent years. Data from the Open Source Securities Research Institute also show that in April this year, the net growth of financial management exceeded 2.2 trillion yuan, setting a new monthly high in recent years.

Wang Ziyu, a researcher at China International Capital Corporation, believes that considering that banks have allocated about 7 trillion yuan in deposits, the capital market is generally more worried about the pressure of asset mismatch and performance standards of wealth management products, as well as the potential possibility of negative feedback.

Joint-stock banks are greatly affected, and banks increase the expansion of low-cost deposits

On May 15, a person from a certain branch of Minsheng Bank in Shenzhen said that smart deposits can reach an annualized rate of 2% in seven days, and many customers have been circulating since last year, increasing the pressure on bank interest; on the other hand, the compensation of interest to the public should be done both actively and passively in the face of competition, which will exert greater pressure on banks to pay interest.

discsoftron| After the manual interest payments were stopped, public deposits were relocated, and funds continued to flood into wealth management products. Can bank financial management withstand this wave of "wealth creation"?

According to China International Capital Corporation's latest report on May 14, there has been a significant deviation in the interest payment rate for public and individual demand deposits since December 2019. The interest payment rate for individual demand deposits has continued to decline from 0.45% to 0.20% in December 2023. However, in the same period, the demand deposit for the public has climbed from 0.70% to 1.05% in December 2023, and the gap is getting bigger and bigger.

The China International Capital Corporation report also shows that the average cost ratio of corporate time deposits and demand deposits has been rising since 2022, reaching 2.93% and 1.24% respectively as of March this year.

Wei Lulu, a researcher at China International Capital Corporation, believes that in the future, if the phenomenon of "manual interest compensation" is banned, for banks, it is expected to further promote the transformation of corporate deposits into non-silver deposits, and the conversion ratio may be about 30%.

The financial data released by the central bank also indirectly showed this trend: RMB deposits increased by 7.32 trillion yuan in the first four months. Of this total, household deposits increased by 6.71 trillion yuan, deposits of non-financial enterprises decreased by 1.65 trillion yuan, and deposits of non-banking financial institutions increased by 1.23 trillion yuan.

People from the above-mentioned joint-stock banks admit that the pressure on high-cost deposits will have less impact on banks with better retail business, such as big banks and China Merchants Bank, which is similar to the main retail business, whose customer structure has a relatively large source of low-cost deposits, driving down the overall interest rate. In addition, the retail deposit base of agricultural commercial banks is also relatively good, especially in developed areas, the savings business is generally in the leading position in the industry.

For bank deposits, according to Wang Yifeng, an analyst at Everbright Securities, by the end of March 2024, the deposit-to-loan ratio of the four major banks was 85.3%, down 1pct from the beginning of the year; the national deposit-to-loan ratio of small and medium-sized banks was 99.8%, which increased 0.4pct compared with the beginning of the year. Excluding agriculture-related institutions, it shows that the situation of incremental deposit-to-loan ratio of joint-stock banks and urban commercial banks is more severe.

On May 8, Qilu Bank said in an institutional survey that the current measures to control the cost of interest-paying liabilities include: one is to precipitate more demand funds through settlement services and cash management, and the other is to optimize the deposit structure. through optimizing internal and external pricing policies, performance evaluation and other measures, guide branches to further increase low-cost deposit marketing, control the proportion of long-term and high pricing business The third is to strengthen the public-private linkage, strengthen batch projects, payroll marketing, and precipitate deposits through batch customers and source marketing.

Funds pour into wealth management products, institutions warn of potential risks

On May 14, China International Capital Corporation reported that since 2024, the interest rate of deposit listing has declined a lot, while the overall return of financial management due to the downside of bond yields is higher, which makes the income attractiveness of financial management.

However, Wang Ziyu, a researcher at China International Capital Corporation, believes that the average performance of fixed-income financial products from 2020 to 2021 can reach the standard, but since 2022, with the aggravation of the asset shortage and the adjustment of the bond market and stock market, the pressure on financial products to meet the standard has begun to appear.

Their own funds are favored financial management, the cancellation of manual interest even higher financial management scale, there is also pressure on the financial management son.

According to Puyi data, by the end of April, the scale of existing financial management had reached 28.79 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.08 trillion yuan over the end of last year, and the growth rate was the highest in the same period in recent years, mainly in February and April. Among them, the growth rate of the balance of the financial management of the big bank has increased significantly.

Wang Ziyu, a researcher at China International Capital Corporation, believes that considering that banks have allocated about 7 trillion yuan in deposits, the capital market is generally more worried about the pressure of asset mismatch and performance standards of wealth management products, as well as the potential possibility of negative feedback.

Wang Ziyu believes that the proportion of cash and deposit allocation has increased in financial management in the past two years, and the cancellation of the manual interest rate may lead to a decline in 10bp; at the same time, a large number of demand deposits will finance as an alternative product, increasing the pressure and proportion of financial allocation of short-term bonds, if the difference between financial management and fixed deposit income is too large, we should pay attention to the possible direct pressure of centralized redemption, as well as indirect pressure on the bond market.

Xiao Jinchuan, an analyst at Huaxi Securities, also believes that after the suspension of manual interest payment, the non-bank end will face the question of whether the lack of interest compensation will cause fluctuations in the net worth of products. Settled on the pace of the short-term bond market, interest rates continue to adjust or tend to be stable, if further upward, may trigger financial management and bank redemption of funds, thus entering the stage of negative feedback overshoot caused by institutional behavior.