ataricentipede|非农数据大爆冷！美联储降息预期起死回生

Special topicAtaricentipedeApril non-farm far worse than expectedAtaricentipedeIn February and March, non-farmers were revised down 2.Ataricentipede.20,000 people

Source: Jinshi data

The US non-farm payrolls report was generally weak in April, and the market returned to expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by 25 basis points twice in 2024.

Employers scaled back hiring in April, unemployment rose unexpectedly and wage growth slowed, according to the latest data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, suggesting that the labor market is cooling after strong growth at the start of the year.

Non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 17% after the quarterly adjustment in AprilAtaricentipede. the increase was the lowest since October 2023, below the expected figure of 243000 and the previous figure of 303000. The US unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 3.9 per cent in April and the market is expected to remain unchanged at 3.8 per cent. The average monthly rate of hourly wages in the United States in April was 0.2%, lower than expected and 0.3%.

The dollar index fell more than 50 points in the short term on the news. Spot gold rose more than $20 in the short term, hitting the 2320 mark at one point. Spot silver rose about $0.50 in the short term. Yields on most maturities fell by at least 10 basis points during the day. Us stock index futures climbed, with S & P 500 futures up 1.2%, NASDAQ 100 futures up 1.5% and Dow futures up 0.97%.

According to the revision of previous data, non-farm payrolls were revised down from 270000 to 236000 in February and from 303000 to 315000 in March. After these revisions, the total number of new jobs created in February and March was 22000 lower than that before the revision.

After the release of non-farm data, US interest rate futures now expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points twice in 2024 and once before non-farm data. Traders advanced their expectations of the Fed's first rate cut from November to September.

Chris Anstey, an analyst, said lower-than-expected wage growth in the non-farm report was probably the biggest problem. It should also be noted that the revision to the previous two months resulted in a cumulative loss of employment by 22000. This is a report of overall weakness.

Richard Flynn, general manager of Schwab Financial, said the latest non-farm payrolls report showed that demand in the labour market was slowing. In recent months, it has become clear that the Fed is happy to move slowly in the rate cut cycle and does not want the economy to be unexpectedly weak, and the report we see today could lead to a shift in that approach. The collapse of the labour market could prompt the Fed to shift from a ramble to a sprint.

Dan Suzuki, deputy chief investment officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors, believes that this is an employment report that is quite beneficial to the market. This roughly suggests that job growth is slowing moderately, but not collapsing, which helps to reduce wage pressures. At the same time, employment and working hours in manufacturing are stable, indicating that part of the economy continues to receive solid support.

According to some analysts, wage data may be the most noteworthy data point in the non-farm report. In the past three months, the average hourly wage growth rate was only 0.23%, compared with 0.4% in the first three months. The slowdown in wage growth is likely to be the driving force behind the improvement in non-housing service inflation data in the coming quarters. The Fed's preferred "super core" service sector inflation indicator (excluding housing) has been on the rise since mid-2023, which is clearly not what the Fed wants to see. In the service sector, wages account for a larger share of the cost base, so a theoretical slowdown in income should help ease price pressures in the service sector.

Priya Misra, a portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, said the payrolls data "underscored Powell's confidence that monetary policy is restrictive and that labour supply has been the main driver of strong non-farm payrolls growth in recent months". The slowdown in employment and wage growth means a "soft landing", she said. "assuming CPI also shows a slowdown, the August rate cut may return to the market narrative." For now, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 10 basis points at its August meeting, up from 7 basis points before the report. Therefore, it is clear that more data is needed to show the economic slowdown, especially the upcoming inflation data.