kingslots|港股通“休假” 谁在暴力拉升港股?

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2024-05-02
Stock speculation is based on the Jin Kirin analyst Research report, authoritative, professional, timely and comprehensive, to help you...

Stock speculation is based on the Jin Kirin analyst Research report, authoritative, professional, timely and comprehensive, to help you tap potential theme opportunities.Kingslots!

The activity of Hong Kong stocks was highly dependent on A-share funds, Shanghai, Hong Kong and Shenzhen funds, and for a long time in the past, Hong Kong stocks had an embarrassing performance if Hong Kong stocks were closed because of holidays. Now, during the May Day holiday, when there is a lack of A-share funds and Shanghai, Hong Kong and Shenzhen funds, Hong Kong stocks do not rely on the sharp rise of A-share funds or means that foreign institutions and QDII funds are making great efforts to cover their positions. Before the May Day holiday, a number of Hong Kong stock companies increased their shareholdings by institutions and overseas sovereign funds. Some fund managers stressed that the service industry and retail data during the May Day period may become a perspective for foreign investors to observe China's macro-economy.

A year behind, the Hong Kong stock AI model plate has taken off

Hong Kong $Hang Seng Science and Technology Index (800700) is influenced by the Hong Kong stock AI model plate excavated by foreign capital and the optimistic judgment of foreign investors observing China's economic recovery during May Day.Kingslots(.HK) $soared by more than 4%, driving the full take-off of AI core varieties.

Although the hype of the AI model in A shares and US stocks has been going on for a year, the AI model plate of Hong Kong stocks has become the shadow of many public fund managers in the past year. Chinese reporters from securities firms have noticed that during the hot hype period of A shares and US stock AI models, many fund managers who missed the market went south to Hong Kong stocks to explore "cheaper and more authentic artificial intelligence", but contrary to fund managers' expectations. The Hong Kong stock market is not only indifferent to the global popularity of the AI model, but also a rare scene of a deep slump in reverse, which hit many public offerings that went south to dig for "authentic targets" during 2023 and the first quarter of 2024.

Now, when the AI model of A-share and US stocks has come to an end, global capital, including A-share funds, QDII funds and foreign sovereign funds, are beginning to accelerate their inflows into the Hong Kong market, especially the technology sector. On May 2, technology stocks, which were heavily reduced by public offering funds and listed in Hong Kong stocks with low allocation, were pulled up across the board, showing the logic of institutional capital replenishment.

A Chinese reporter from a securities firm noticed that the more shares were reduced in the early stage of the public offering, the fiercer the replenishment funds were now. As of the close on May 2, Shangtang Technology, which was sold clean by the fund in the fourth quarter of last year, rose by more than 36% on the same day, up 1.7 times in eight trading days. In the previous consecutive sell-off, from the heavy positions of more than a dozen public funds to the only one left, $02013.HK ($) also rose 14.39%. According to the fund's first-quarter report, only Castrol's Hong Kong stock Internet fund is left to hold the stock.

In addition, the AI concept stock $Kingdee International (00268.HK) excavated by public offering funds rose more than 11% on May 2nd, and the $fourth Paradigm (06682.HK) $, which is on a par with Shangtang Technology and $09880.HK $in the field of AI, rose more than 14%. The $02158.HK $of Medical Model and artificial Intelligence Lab with Huawei and Tencent respectively rose nearly 5%. Eight trading days have brought 30% return to fund managers. $Meitu (01357.HK) $, which released the AI model, has also increased by about 4% under the capital replenishment of several star funds. Under the stimulation of the three concepts of new quality productivity, industrial robot and AI model, the $innovative 02121.HK of generative AI industrial manufacturing model has been released for the manufacturing track. It also soared by about 15% with the replenishment of agency funds. In the 2023 annual report, it was announced that the medical AI model and generative medical AI had commercialized $02192.HK $for the first time, which had also been sold off. On May 2, the stock rose nearly 5%. The latest fund's first-quarter report shows that with the blessing of the AI model, it has ushered in a large position of public offering products under Cathay Pacific Fund during the first quarter of this year.

The A-share fund will temporarily leave the Hong Kong Stock Exchange during the holidays. Who is making up the Hong Kong stock market?

In the past year, due to the suspension of the Hong Kong Stock Connect, A-share funds were unable to move southward during each round of holidays. as a result, Hong Kong stocks were often targeted during the holidays in the absence of funds for the Hong Kong Stock Connect. Now who is the long force of Hong Kong stocks rising so ferociously in the suspension of Hong Kong Stock Connect?

"We judge that the current Hong Kong stock market when the Hong Kong Stock Connect is suspended is mainly due to the continued long performance of foreign-funded institutions and public QDII funds." A fund manager in Shenzhen who has invested heavily in Hong Kong stocks through Hong Kong stocks believes that a large number of foreign institutions began to buy observation positions in the first quarter of this year, while the Hong Kong stock position of the QDII fund has been steadily increasing over the past three months, but since the Hong Kong stock position is still low among many public QDII positions, it also means that there is still plenty of room for this increase. Chinese reporters at the brokerage also noted that Yidu Technology, an AI medical model company whose market capitalization fell from HK $60 billion to HK $5 billion, released information on Hong Kong equity disclosure on April 24, showing that the international sovereign fund BIA increased its position in the stock to 53.6 million shares. As a result of the announcement on the evening of April 30, Tencent increased its stake in the technology marketing company that transformed to the AI track and enabled Weimeng Group to replenish about 900 million yuan.

Obviously, under the background that A-share funds are unable to move southward through the Hong Kong Stock Connect during the May Day period, the strong rise in Hong Kong stocks implies that the current Hong Kong stock market is not only optimistic about the trend of mainland public placement companies, the return of overseas funds is also consistent with mainland institutions. Feng Chencheng, an Internet fund manager for Hong Kong stocks Warburg Hong Kong stocks, believes that in terms of the pace of China's economic recovery, macro expectations are still a factor that disturbs investor sentiment at the molecular level. Data on the service industry and retail industry during the May Day period may become a point of view for foreign investors to observe China's macro-economy.

Industry insiders also stressed that the sharp rise in the technology index, which was suspended on May 2, reflects that the risk appetite of Hong Kong stocks has begun to increase significantly, and has shifted from the mainland public offering unilaterally optimistic about the market to the consistent atmosphere of A-share funds, Hong Kong stock funds, QDII funds and foreign institutions.

With regard to the Hong Kong stock market, especially technology stocks that have fallen for a year or even three years in a row, how do public funds view the belated AI market of Hong Kong stocks?

  对此,南方香港成长基金经理王士聪认为,全球AI周期仍在中早期阶段,AI将成为未来 10 年社会生产效率提升的关键因素。硬件方面,GPU仍是主线,需求端,不仅 GPT、Claude、Sora、Gemini等大模型仍在快速更新,推理端也有更多应用落地,$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$在GTC大会上发布新的B系列GPU,效能和架构都有较大提升,尤其适合推理端的应用,也给整体上游产业链带来重大机会,英伟达的大部分上游产业链都在中国内地和中国台湾地区。除了服务器,更多端侧的算力将跟随AI手机、AIP C的兴起开始逐步发力,并可能在2024年下半年到2025年进一步提速,进而在未来2—3年带动新一轮换机周期,同时, 这也带来先进制造的投资机会,预计AI技术将逐步应用到各类垂类应用中, 图文、视频、自动驾驶、推荐算法、教育、数据库等领域都会在 2024年迎来突破性进展。

  平安沪港深基金经理刘杰认为,2024 年权益市场走势的主要因素包括国内外经济形势、国际货币环境、国际贸易关系等。国内经济走势筑稳向好的中期趋势不变,而外需目前来看好于市场预期,为中国制造 业“出海”寻找新的成长方向提供了更多机会,基金也在努力发掘中国制造业中具备全球竞争力、 能够走向全球成长壮大的细分品种;国际货币环境一旦主要国家开启宽松周期,全球资本市场估 值有望边际修复,基本面也会出现边际改善;国际贸易关系在今年全球“大选年”的背景下,可能存在一定扰动因素,相信在国际分工及全球化的大趋势下,国际市场会是中国制造业 的重要成长与发展方向。2024 年权益市场可能仍将表现为一定的分化特征。一方面,市场将继续在具备防御属性的低估值高股息品种如公用事业、大金融、交运、资源股中寻找相对确定的现金回报机会;而与此同时,数字经济、智能驾驶、机器人等为代表的长期创新成长方向在相关品种估值充分调整后,个股机会也将逐渐显现。

kingslots|港股通“休假” 谁在暴力拉升港股?

  诺安基金研究部总经理邓心怡也表示,AI人工智能的需求端,各类应用层出不穷,尤其是近期以KIMI为代表的国产大模型不断迭代,看到了国内人工智能发展的进展曙光,相信随着全球大模型能力的不断提升,To B端的办公、编程、营销等场景,To C端自动驾驶、图文生成、游戏等领域都有望迎来渗透率的快速提升, AI PC /手机/ MR等硬件创新有望进一步促进AI进入能力迭代的正反馈。另外在政策层面,政府工作报告提出“人工智能+”行动,相关政策与战略布局也明确提出了加快推动人工智能发展的要求。因此,随着大模型能力的持续提升,有望迎来算力和应用需求的爆发性增长。

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