bingofantastic| Japan intervened in the foreign exchange market twice in a week, with a total scale of approximately 9 trillion yen

editor editor
43
2024-05-03
5月2日,日本央行帐户数据显示,日本在本周四进行第二次日元干预,干预规模或为3bingofantastic.5万亿日元。 此前,日本周一(4月29日)可能干预了日元汇率,为2022年来日本官方首次干预汇市,干预规模约为5.5万亿日元。两次共计约为9万亿日元。隔夜美国...

5月2日,日本央行帐户数据显示,日本在本周四进行第二次日元干预,干预规模或为3bingofantastic.5万亿日元。 

bingofantastic| Japan intervened in the foreign exchange market twice in a week, with a total scale of approximately 9 trillion yen

此前,日本周一(4月29日)可能干预了日元汇率,为2022年来日本官方首次干预汇市,干预规模约为5.5万亿日元。两次共计约为9万亿日元。

隔夜美国尾盘,日元兑美元汇率在几分钟内从157.58日元左右飙升至153.04日元,当时交易员就猜测日本可能已经出手干预。

然而涨势未能保持。在周四亚洲时段,日元兑美元汇率一度下跌1.1%,触及156.28日元,进一步接近疑似干预前的水平,导致市场进一步质疑日本官方下场干预的效果。

本周两轮疑似干预后,日本当局保持日元强势的努力却基本落空。分析师指出,日本和美国之间的巨大利差是导致日元贬值的根本原因之一。

瑞穗证券首席策略师Shoki Omori表示,现在日本官方被认为再度干预,但给人的印象是,bingofantastic他们无法凭一己之力阻止日元贬值,投资者可能觉得更放心地做空日元。

而让空头更有信心的是,美国和日本基准债券收益率之间的巨大差距意味着,日本官方即便是干预了,也注定是失败的。

目前美日利差处于3.7个百分点高位,外汇干预无法扭转巨大的利率差距,除非有明确迹象表明美联储将开始降息周期。

自日本政府于 2022 年 9 月进行干预以来,日元兑美元汇率已下跌 8%,当时美日利差为接近3个百分点。

华尔街见闻此前文章提及,由于美联储降息预期推迟,日美利率缩窄无望,因此分析人士预计今年日本官方为了支撑日元汇率,将和市场有一场拉锯战。

5月3日和6日两个交易日为日本黄金周假日,汇市流动性较低,其中5月6日当天伦敦市场也会假期休市,市场清淡,可能会加大汇率波动,如果周五公布的美国就业数据对美元形成支撑并进一步拖累日元,日本方面可能有所行动。

Gaitame Research Institute 研究主管Takuya Kanda表示:

黄金周期间有更多干预的可能性很高,尤其是6日,周五美元兑日元可能在美国就业数据的推动下走强。

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